Neal’s research focused on the design of water markets, particularly market mechanisms for managing major water storages. Recently, Neal’s PhD research was used to inform the ACCC Murray Darling Basin water market inquiry. Neal’s PhD also explored the application of machine learning techniques to economics.

Since returning to the APS, Neal has led several major projects at ABARES, including the development of new economic models of Australian farms and water markets, drawing on techniques developed as part of his thesis. At ABARES, Neal has produced a range of research on agricultural policy issues including the effects of drought and climate change on Australian farms, and water policy in the Murray-Darling Basin. Neal writes regularly on these issues in The Conversation.

Visit Neal's website to learn more about him and his research. 

Supervisor: Professor Quentin Grafton

Publications

• Hughes N, Zhao M, John A and Horne A (2026) ‘Water markets under climate change: a monthly model of the Murray-Darling Basin’, EGUsphere [preprint]
• Hughes N, Zhao M and Downham R (2026) ‘A bio-economic approach for predicting monthly irrigation water demands’, EGUsphere [preprint]
• Hughes N, Gaydon D, Gupta M, Schepen A, Tan P, Brent G, Turner A, Bellew S, Soh W Y, Sharman C, Taylor P, Carter J, Bruget D, Hochman Z, Searle R, Song Y, Mitchell P, Beletse Y, Holzworth D, Guillory L, Brodie C, McComb J and Singh R. (2025) ‘Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)’, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25:3461–3482.
• Schepen A, Bolt A, Bruget D, Carter J, Gaydon D, Gupta M, Hochman Z, Hughes N, Sharman C, Tan P and Taylor P (2025) ‘Forecasting agricultural drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators’, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25:4053–4070.
• Hughes N, Gupta M, Whittle L and Westwood T (2023), 'An Economic Model of Spatial and Temporal Water Trade in the Australian Southern Murray-Darling Basin', Water Resources Research, 59(4), Article e2022WR032559.
• Hughes N, Soh W, Lawson K and Lu M (2022) ‘Improving the performance of micro-simulation models with machine learning: The case of Australian farms’, Economic Modeling, 115, Article 105957.
• Hughes N, Lu, M, Soh W, Lawson K (2022) ‘Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms’, Climatic Change, 172, Article 12.
• Hughes N, Soh W, Boult C and Lawson K (2022) ‘Defining drought from the perspective of Australian farmers’ Climate Risk Management, 35, Article 100420.
• Hughes N, Gupta M, Whittle L, Boult C and Westwood T (2021) A model of spatial and inter-temporal water trade in the southern Murray-Darling Basin [Working paper], Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Chancellor W, Hughes N, Zhao S, Soh W, Valle H and Boult C (2021) ‘Controlling for the effects of climate on total factor productivity: A case study of Australian farms’, Food policy, 102, Article 102091.
• Hughes N and Gooday P (2021) Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms [report], Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N, Gupta M, Soh W, Boult C, Lawson K, Lu, M and Westwood T (2020) The Agricultural Data Integration Project, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N, Donoghoe M and Whittle L (2020) ‘Farm Level Effects of On-Farm Irrigation Infrastructure Programs in the Southern Murray–Darling Basin’. Australian Economic Review, 53(4):494-516.
• Whittle L, Galeano D, Hughes N, Gupta M, Leg P, Westwood T, Jackson T and Hatfield-Dodds S (2020) Economic effects of water recovery in the Murray-Darling Basin [report], Australian Bureau of Agicutlureal and Recourse Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N, Galeano D and Hattfield-Dodds (2019) The effects of drought and climate variability on Australian farms, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Gupta M, Hughes N and Wakerman-Powell K (2018) A model of water trade and irrigation activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Gupta M and Hughes N (2018) Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N, Lawson K and Valle H (2017) Farm performance and climate: climate adjusted productivity for broadacre cropping farms, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N (3 February 2016) ‘Water property rights in rivers with large environmental water holders’ [conference presentation]. Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 2016 Conference (60th), Canberra.
• Hughes N, Gupta M and Rathakumar K (2016), Lessons from the water market: the southern Murray-Darling Basin water allocation market 2000-01 to 2015-16, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N (2015) Water property rights in rivers with large dams [PhD Thesis], The Australian National University, Canberra.
• Hughes N (14 November 2014) ‘Applying reinforcement learning to economic problems’ [conference presentation], ANU Crawford PhD Conference, The Australian National University, Canberra.
• Hughes N (12 August 2014), ‘Water storage rights: decentralising reservoir operation’ [conference presentation], 77th International Atlantic Economic Conference, Madrid, International Atlantic Economic Society.
• Hughes N (2014) ‘Applying reinforcement learning to economic problems’. ANU Crawford PhD Conference, Canberra, The Australian National University.
• Hughes N, Gibbs C, Dahl A, Tregeagle D and Sanders O (2013), Storage rights and water allocation arrangements in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N (9-11 February 2011), 'Estimating irrigation farm production functions using ABARES irrigation survey data’, AARES Conference (55th), Melbourne, Australian Agricultural & Resource Economics Society
• Hughes N, Lawson K, Davidson A, Jackson T and Sheng Y (2011), Productivity pathways: Climate adjusted production frontiers for the Australian broadacre cropping industry, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N (10-12 February 2010), ‘Defining property rights to water in complex regulated river systems: generalising the capacity sharing concept’, AARES Conference (54th), Adelaide, Australian Agricultural & Resource Economics Society.
• Hughes N and Goesch T (2009), Capacity sharing in the St George and Macintyre Brook irrigation schemes in southern Queensland, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N and Goesch T (2009), Management of irrigation water storages: carryover rights and capacity sharing, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.
• Hughes N, Hafi A and Goesch T (2009), 'Urban water management: optimal price and investment policy under climate variability', Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 53(2):175-192.

Visit Neal's website for a full list of his publications.